Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.167074 10.543901 12.033942 13.763380 15.712375 17.837698 20.327569
2025-04-20 7.291624 9.176296 11.379995 14.134756 17.472932 21.373107 26.259852
2025-04-27 6.314434 8.419410 11.005055 14.391572 18.684093 23.915361 30.741471
2025-05-04 5.424233 7.624858 10.451738 14.312753 19.406593 25.849589 34.560475
2025-05-11 4.697346 6.920167 9.890616 14.099282 19.847832 27.355090 37.816798
2025-05-18 4.187416 6.438464 9.556355 14.122119 20.554595 29.196298 41.564139
2025-05-25 3.809711 6.092448 9.359503 14.289154 21.430882 31.271790 45.694022
2025-06-01 3.439189 5.711595 9.067382 14.277115 22.026132 32.960932 49.345150
2025-06-08 3.088688 5.320623 8.717749 14.137452 22.403587 34.333794 52.586328
2025-06-15 2.846429 5.072573 8.556780 14.256345 23.150703 36.252816 56.679881
2025-06-22 2.699032 4.962014 8.595355 14.675653 24.362603 38.897185 61.943611
2025-06-29 2.446867 4.649223 8.281622 14.507178 24.642144 40.142325 65.153221
2025-07-06 2.106384 4.153860 7.634310 13.760453 23.975529 39.931352 66.177065
2025-07-13 1.991417 4.049144 7.634630 14.084125 25.049368 42.470962 71.573694
2025-07-20 1.879509 3.937328 7.610177 14.356877 26.043837 44.917363 76.913830
2025-07-27 1.723575 3.725917 7.390985 14.272446 26.426600 46.388585 80.748742
2025-08-03 1.565784 3.493980 7.113992 14.061492 26.571992 47.466059 83.975205
2025-08-10 1.454494 3.343179 6.973556 14.083588 27.116746 49.220244 88.376642
2025-08-17 1.371072 3.240871 6.915583 14.250455 27.921041 51.438706 93.633991
2025-08-24 1.273788 3.099101 6.769115 14.238362 28.397061 53.109752 98.024079
2025-08-31 1.171320 2.935153 6.564867 14.099067 28.627053 54.356365 101.726428
2025-09-07 1.104301 2.842787 6.496703 14.217662 29.337020 56.466539 106.996248
2025-09-14 1.071045 2.824000 6.577894 14.635955 30.630690 59.662151 114.284427